Today we have the second pick in the 2024 college football season! For this play we head off to Norman, Oklahoma, in a game that features the home squad Sooners versus the visiting Temple Owls. Below we will break down the matchups and who I have my money on. Let’s dive in… see you in the DEEP WATERS!!!
Temple is coming off of a 3-9 2023 campaign. A campaign that saw them go 1-7 in American Conference play. If you thought last year was bad, well Temple is expected to be even worse this year, and one of the worst teams in the FBS. The reason for that being is this offseason lost in the offseason, starting quarterback E.J. Warner, their top running back, two top receivers and three starting offensive linemen. The offensive unit last year was by no means a good one but it was the better side of the ball for this team. In steps Forrest Brock at QB, who attempted 15 passes with no touchdowns and one interception in 2023. This as your new starter paired with the loss of your three best offensive weapons and replacing 3 of your starting offensive lineman will be a daunting task in 2024.
The Owls were also a mess defensively in 2023 and to make matters worse, they return five players from that unit but must replace nine of the top ten tacklers. This on a unit that ranked 121st in EPA and 109 in success rate allowed. Those are terrible numbers, and I do not see how that improves in Week 1 against Oklahoma, especially factoring in losing your top 9 tacklers from last year’s squad.
Oklahoma is quite the opposite, they come in ready to rock and roll. Oklahoma will begin its first season in the SEC with a new quarterback. The true Sophomore Jackson Arnold steps in as QB1 this year.
Jackson Arnold was a true big time recruit out of Texas and is expected to be good. However, he’s still inexperienced and will need support to grow into his new role. The good thing is, the Sooners return seven offensive starters from last year’s team, including their top rusher and five of their top six receivers. They also will be solid up front with 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman returning. Arnold might have to step his game up in SEC play, but for this game all he has to do is distribute the ball to his playmakers and the outcome will speak for itself.
Now let’s look to the other side of the ball. The Oklahoma defense has improved since Brent Venables took over as head coach. Last season, Oklahoma ranked 29th in Success Rate Allowed, including 33rd in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Sooners return 8 starters from last year’s defense.
This is truly a mismatch in talent and there is a reason the spread is at -42 for Oklahoma in this game. As for me, I’m personally betting Oklahoma and giving those points. Let’s look below at my three major factors for playing OU -42.
- Talent gap; plain and simple OU talent wise is ELITE compared to Temple. Major offensive production returns for OU while all of Temple’s offensive production is gone from a team that went 3-9 last year. On the other side of the ball you have a very good defense who returns 8 of 11 starters compared to a terrible Swiss cheese defense that lost their top 9 tacklers from last years unit.
- While both quarter backs are inexperienced, I’l take the elite recruit who learned all last year to step in and lead his unit. All Jackson Arnold has to do is spread the ball around to his playmakers and the OU offense will be successful. As for Brock, he has a bare cupboard of guys to get the ball to and he only threw 15 passes last year. Not a good recipe for success.
- Backups will play a role and I trust OU’s depth to still score and stop Temple. Point blank, Oklahoma’s backups are talented and they will still be able to move the ball offensively and stop Temple defensively. Even if they are still playing the Temple starters I think the OU backups will be successful on both sides of the ball.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Oklahoma -42- 1.1 to win 1 Unit
