It is here! The first full Saturday slate of the 2024 College Football Season. For the first play of the day we head out to Iowa City, Iowa for an afternoon tilt between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the visiting Illinois State Redbirds. I have a play in this game and below I will breakdown the two teams and who I have my money on. So let’s dive in…See you in the DEEP WATERS!!!
The Redbirds finished with a 6-5 record last year, but the record is a little misleading. Four of Illinois State’s five losses came by a combined eight points. So not your typical 6-5 team. It’ll be a new quarterback for the Redbirds under center after the departure of Zack Annexstad. In his place, is either his primary backup last season Tommy Rittenhouse or Kansas State transfer Jake Rubley. The Redbirds were great on the ground last year, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. They return their running back Mason King, who notched 14 touchdowns last season, along with three offensive linemen. With a new QB1 under center this team will look to lean heavily on the run game.
Illinois State has some talent returning on the other side of the ball as well. Nine of their eleven starters on defense are back, including all of their top seven tacklers from last season. With a solid front seven returning on defense it will be very interesting to see if Illinois State can control the line of scrimmage against an Iowa team that dictates the game via a strong offensive line.
When the Hawkeyes take the field for the first time in the 2024 season, they will be without their longtime head coach, Kirk Ferentz. Thanks to a self-imposed suspension for a recruiting violation, this will be the first Hawkeye football game not coached by Ferentz or his predecessor since 1978.
Even without the head ball coach Ferentz, the Hawkeyes should still be well-organized. They return a whopping 19 starters — nine on offense, eight on defense and two on special teams — which ranks atop the Big Ten regarding returning production. The story for Iowa football is always defense, and that will be no different this season. This program led the country in yards per play allowed over the past two seasons. With all of that returning production on the defense side of the ball, the Hawkeyes look to continue to be dominant.
For the Hawkeyes to be successful, though, they need to be a functional offense. Ex-Western Michigan coach Tim Lester is entrusted as turning things around as the new offensive coordinator. Iowa managed 15.4 PPG in 2023, so things can’t get much worse. QB Cade McNamara is back healthy and ready to lead the offense. Iowa will look to control the line of scrimmage and lean on their run game. If they can control the line of scrimmage like usual then the pass game opens up for Cade to distribute the rock.
For me, I’m personally playing the Under 42.5 in this game. I think both teams want to control the line of scrimmage and lean on the run game. Even if there are some explosive plays the clock will keep ticking. I personally love Iowa’s defense and think they control the line of scrimmage. I do not see Illinois State moving the ball consistently on the ground and with a new QB1 I do not see them having much success via the air. On the other side of the ball I think Iowa will move the ball but I do not trust the passing game to have explosive plays. With Illinois State returning nine of eleven starters on the defensive unit, I look for them to play the run and force Cade McNamara to beat them. That is something that I can live with.
Now let’s take a look below at my three major factors for this game.
- The running clock. With both teams wanting to lean on the run game, the clock will keep on ticking. Unless there are some explosive runs, each team will look to sustain drives via controlling the line of scrimmage.
- Defense, defense, defense. Iowa has a legit defense and with eight starters returning it might even be better than last year. I look for them to control the line of scrimmage and shut down the run game to make Illinois State beat them via the air with their new QB1.
- Lack of explosive plays. Yes, some big runs might happen, especially with Iowa on offense. However I’m willing to take those chances. Especially with Iowa having inconsistency at quarterback and explosive plays via the air. If this play loses via explosive plays in the air, I will just tip my cap and wear it.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Illinois State vs Iowa Under 42.5 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Season Record; 2-0 +2 Units
