Week 3 of the 2024 college football season technically started yesterday but today on Friday September 13, it starts for me. We head out on this Friday night to Manhattan, Kansas and to Kansas State University. The Wildcats play hosts to the visiting Arizona Wildcats in both team’s Big 12 opener. Below I will breakdown the matchup and let you know who or what I have my money on for this tilt. So lets dive in… see you in the DEEP WATERS!!!
Arizona smacked New Mexico 61-39 in its season opener at home. They rushed the ball at will for 205 yards and threw the ball for 422 yards. Outscoring the Lobos 34-15 in the second half to secure the 22-point win. It was a track meet, as both teams combined for a whopping total of 1,098 yards. However last week the Wildcats struggled against FCS opponent NAU, scoring just 22 points. It will be interesting to see what Wildcats offense shows up tonight under the lights on the road.
Arizona is led by QB1 Noah Fifita, who took over the job a few games in after an injury and he never looked back. His top receiving threat, 6-foot-5 junior WR Tetairoa McMillan, caught 10 passes for 304 yards and four TDs in week one but was limited to 2 receptions for 11 yards last week. Senior RB Quali Conley paces the ground game with 27 carries for 202 yards with three scores. Arizona averages 41.5 points per game and just under 500 yards a game so far this campaign.
Arizona features a lot of defensive transfers, especially on the defensive line, where all four starters up front are new. Junior Jacob Manu is a standout linebacker and the secondary is solid with junior CB Tacario Davis leading the group. Arizona was gutted in the season opener but held Northern Arizona to 198 total yards last week, as the defense led the team to victory in the second half. The Wildcats currently give up 24.5 points a gamer and 330 yards a game.
Kansas State smacked Tennessee-Martin in week 1 and then survived a scare in New Orleans as they came from behind to beat Tulane last week. DJ Giddens the stud running back had over 100 yards in each of the first two games. A running attack will sure help with the passing game and also allows this team to control the LOS. Sophomore QB Avery Johnson paces the aerial attack with 334 yards on 29-for-44 and a 4:1 TD: INT ratio. His top target is sophomore WR Jayce Brown, who has 6 receptions for 88 yards. Kansas State currently averages 37.5 points a game and 422.5 total yards a game.
Kansas State’s defense was extremely solid last season. The Wildcats have several standout performers, including senior LB Austin Moore who is an absolute stud, sophomore LB Austin Romaine who has started the 2024 season with eight tackles and two forced turnovers, and junior CB Jacob Parrish. The secondary should be stout with Parrish and a strong safety presence, however they did get gashed against Tulane last week. This matchup against Arizona should be telling if this was a fluke or an issue going forward for the secondary. Kansas State allows 16.5 points a game and 312.5 total yards per game.
This is one of those plays where you look like a complete sharp or a complete joe, there is no in between. As many people see this game flying over the total with two offenses that are explosive and have playmakers, I’m actually going the opposite side of many. I have my money on the under 60 in this game. I believe that we will see Kansas State make an emphasis on controlling the line of scrimmage and the clock will be an issue. I think controlling the game on the ground on offense and then making Arizona one dimensional on offense will keep this contest under 60 points.
Below I will list my three key factors for why I have my money on the under in this contest.
- LOS! I think K State controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and what does that do for us, it bleeds clock. I think they know Arizona has a dynamic passing attack and will look to run the ball and keep that offensive unit on the sideline for as long as possible.
- Arizona’s defense will key in on that run game of Kansas St. I think just like K State will look to make Arizona one dimensional in forcing them to run, we will see Arizona on defense do that and force K State to beat them in the air.
- This will not be pretty!!! However I do think we get some long possessions and with that if we get a bend but do not break defenses that force a few field goals instead of touchdowns, this total will cash.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Arizona vs Kansas State Under 60; 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Season Record: 6-3 +2.8 units
