With the first play of the Saturday slate, we head out to Madison, Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Badgers play host to the visiting Alabama Crimson Tide in a game that starts with an afternoon kickoff. Below I will breakdown this matchup and let you know who or what I have my money on for this tilt. So let’s dive in… see you in the DEEP WATERS!!!
The Alabama Crimson Tide find themselves undefeated in the early season. Last week they were in a battle with South Florida up 14-13 after three quarters, but a dominant fourth by them had them ease to a 42-16 victory.
The Crimson Tide are led by returning QB1 Jalen Milroe and his dynamic playmaking ability. Milroe can absolutely kill a defense with his feet but what remains to be seen is if he has improved his arm and accuracy. So far he looks good but this week will be the biggest test to date. Running back Jam Miller led the Alabama ground game with 140 yards rushing including a 56-yard touchdown run last week and fellow RB Justice Haynes ran for 41 yards on the ground and had a score as well. As far as the wideouts go, Ryan Williams and Kobe Prentice had two touchdown grabs last week and they look to solidify the skill players for this squad going forward.
Defensively, the Crimson Tide have allowed just one touchdown on the season. Defensively this team is stacked and they play fast and furious. The front seven is mean and physical and the secondary flys around and makes plays on the ball. They blanked a Western Kentucky team who is and has been very good offensively the past few years and then they allowed 16 points to a very upstart offensive team in South Florida. Will be interesting seeing how they do on the road in a showdown against the Big Ten.
Wisconsin comes into this tilt 2-0 after beating South Dakotah last week at home and then gutting out a win in week 1, 28-14 against Western Michigan. Tyler Van Dyke is the new QB1 in Madison and has not looked great by any means so far. However, it is just two games in and he is new in the system under OC Phil Longo. Wisconsin has an offensive line that can control the line of scrimmage, a two back system and a dynamic wideout in Pauling. It will be interesting to see the game plan against a great and physical Crimson Tide defense.
Defensively Wisconsin has good numbers but keep in mind the level of competition. They have a very solid front seven and two returners in the secondary that have experience. I’m very curious to see how coach Fickell and his defensive staff plan to attack and keep the explosive playmakers of Alabama at bay. If they can win the line of scrimmage this could get interesting, however if they start to get pushed around this game could be over at halftime.
As far as my money goes, I’m playing the total in this game. I have a bet on the under 49.5. I look for Wisconsin to make this a very ugly game. The truth is they know they are outmatched, however they do have the talent to possibly win at the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace of play. I look for Wisconsin to win the time of possession on offense, bleed clock and keep that Bama offense on the sidelines. As for defensively, I think Wisconsin will force Bama to win down the field and not by establishing the run. Can they be successful in this way, only time will tell. IF this fails and Alabama dominates on both sides of the ball, I still see this game going under. To me it is an ugly slugfest and if it is a route by Bama I think they can hold Wisconsin to under 10 points which should get us to a cashed ticket.
Here are my three major keys to this play and why my money is on the total and the under.
- I look for Wisconsin to make this an ugly back alley brawl. They know they need to keep the ball, bleed clock and force Bama’s offense to sit on the sideline. I do not know if they can do this but if they can, that clock will be bleeding.
- IF Wisconsin cannot do anything and bleed clock by controlling the time of possession then Bama will boom them. Even if Bama dominates this game I still think this hits. The reason being I think Bama can hold them to under 10 points and that leaves 35-38 for them to score and the ticket still cashes. Very doable.
- Coaching. Say what you want against Luke Fickell but he knows the reality of the situation and knows what type of game this needs to be in order for his squad to have a chance. He is an old school linebacker and that is the type of game we need to hit this total. I see a motivated Wisconsin team come out and match the physicality of Bama and make this game as ugly as can be.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Alabama vs Wisconsin Under 49.5; 2.2 units to win 2 units
Season Record: 7-3 +3.8 units
